The Washington
Post
By Ezra Klein
and Evan Soltas, November 26, 2013
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A spin through
HealthCare.Gov this morning went smoothly. The site loaded quickly. The process
progressed easily. There were no error messages or endless hangs. I didn't
complete the final step of purchasing insurance but, until then, the site worked
-- or at least appeared to work -- exactly as intended.
My experience
isn't rare. There are increasing reports that HealthCare.Gov is working better
-- perhaps much better -- for consumers than it was a few short weeks
ago. "Consumer advocates say it is becoming easier for people to sign up for
coverage," report Sandhya Somashekhar and Amy Goldstein in
the Washington Post. "The truth is, the system is getting stronger as it
recovers from its disastrous launch," writes Sam Baker in the National Journal.
Applying "was no problem at all, with no delays," says Paul
Krugman.
Reports from
inside the health care bureaucracy are also turning towards optimism. People who
knew the Web site was going to be a mess on Oct. 1st are, for the first time,
beginning to think HealthCare.Gov might work. Data backs them up: By
mid-November, the pace of enrollment in the federal exchanges had
doubled from what it was in October.
The Obama
administration is certainly acting like they believe the site has turned the
corner. Somashekhar and Goldstein report that they're "moving on to the outreach
phase, which had taken a back seat as they grappled with the faulty Web site.
Next week, the White House will host an insurance-oriented 'youth summit' aimed
at people ages 18 to 35, an age group whose participation in the health-care law
will be critical to its success."
The White House
had held off on this kind of outreach because they believed it would simply
drive people to a useless Web site. If they're restarting the outreach, it's
because they believe, rightly or wrongly, that HealthCare.Gov will be able to
convert the interest into enrollments.
The worry, at
this point, is that the site is working in ways that are visible but broken in
ways that are harder to see. The Obama administration won't answer direct
questions on the percentage of "834s" -- the forms insurers need to sign people
up for the correct policies at the correct prices -- that are coming through
with errors. Robert Laszewski, a health-industry consultant with deep contacts
among the insurers, told the National Journal the problem is getting
better, but that his clients are still seeing a five percent error rate. That's
still too high.
The systems that
determine whether applicants are eligible for insurance are also improving. But
inside the administration there's a recognition that it was error-ridden in the
first six weeks of Obamacare -- and so the question is how to handle the many
people who unknowingly received an eligibility determination that can't be
trusted.
Still, it's
clear that HealthCare.Gov is improving -- and, at this point, it's improving
reasonably quickly. It won't work perfectly by the end of November but it might
well work tolerably early in December. A political system that's become
overwhelmingly oriented towards pessimism on Obamacare will have to adjust as
the system's technological infrastructure improves.
The next
challenge for the law, as the White House knows, will be the outreach challenge
of signing up enough young-and-healthy people to balance out its risk pools.
That's a challenge the White House spent quite a lot of time thinking about before this IT
nightmare. The question is whether they still have enough time, and enough
clout, to get it right.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/11/26/wonkbook-is-obamacare-turning-the-corner/?print=1